The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was in an El Niño state from July 2023 to June 2024. In Southern Africa, El Niño cycles are associated with hot and dry climatic conditions. Thus, a prolonged El Niño state often leads to the occurrence of droughts in Southern Africa, which are associated with various negative socioeconomic impacts, including loss of agricultural produce, water supply shortages, disease outbreaks, etc.

The 2023/24 El Niño cycle resulted in drought conditions for most of the Southern African Development Community, with countries such as Lesotho, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Namibia and Malawi respectively declaring a state of national disaster due to the below-average rainfall experienced during the summer season. Similarly, South Africa generally received below-average rainfall during the 2023/2024 summer season (i.e. October to March) with the exception of December 2023, where most of the summer rainfall region received normal to above-average rainfall (Figure 1). During October 2023, the eastern-coastal parts of the country notably received above-average rainfall due to a series of cut-off low-pressure systems which brought cool and wet conditions over the coastal areas. It is important to note, however, that although the total amount of rainfall was high in October 2023, this was over a few, large single-day events in between long dry and hot spells. The driest summer months were November and February.